Who is the Favorite to Win ATP Finals 2020?




The ATP Finals 2020 draw threw up some interesting match-ups. The season-ending finale is a tournament where even the lowest-seeded player is considered a serious threat and the 2020 edition is quite evenly matched going into London’s final chance to host the event.

Novak Djokovic and Rafael Nadal are expected to win almost every tournament they are part of. However, they are looking to face opponents that have bested them in the past.

While Nadal is yet to win the title, even Djokovic and fellow ‘Big 3’ member Roger Federer have not won the ATP Finals since 2015. The last 4 years have seen 4 different winners, two of whom are part of the 2020 event.

Rafael Nadal and Novak Djokovic at French Open 2020
Tennis – French Open – Roland Garros, Paris, France – Serbia’s Novak Djokovic and Spain’s Rafael Nadal on the court before the final REUTERS/Charles Platiau

Group Tokyo 1970: Preview and prediction

The first of two groups feature Novak Djokovic, Daniil Medvedev, Alexander Zverev, and Diego Schwartzman. Djokovic is a 5-time champion at the event and is always a favorite on hard-courts.

Meanwhile, Medvedev has all the momentum on his side after winning the Rolex Paris Masters last week. The Russian displayed his form from the second half of the 2019 season when he was almost unbeatable.

However, Zverev is also not far behind. He was on a 12-match winning streak before Medvedev edged him in a three-setter in Paris. He is also enjoying a highly successful end to the season. The 2018 champion defeated Djokovic in the final back then and will certainly fancy his chances on the indoor hard-courts.

Daniil Medvedev at the Rolex Paris Masters 2020
Russia’s Daniil Medvedev poses with the trophy as he celebrates winning the final against Germany’s Alexander Zverev REUTERS/Gonzalo Fuentes

Schwartzman will also be motivated to do well in his first-ever ATP Finals appearance and finish the season strongly. He is yet to beat Djokovic and Medvedev but has two wins over Zverev.

Djokovic, meanwhile, has a positive head-to-head record against all three opponents.

Prediction for the group: Novak Djokovic and Alexander Zverev to advance.

Group London 2020: Preview and prediction

This group features Rafael Nadal, Dominic Thiem, Stefanos Tsitsipas, and Andrey Rublev. If there is one tournament where Nadal could even be considered vulnerable, it is this one.

Nadal showed some of the facets of his game in Paris last week that can help him in London, but faced old problems again in the semi-final against Zverev. Meanwhile, Stefanos Tsitsipas will certainly gain from a title-winning run last season at the ATP Finals.

Dominic Thiem, on the other hand, will look to cap off his best season so far, that gave him a Grand Slam title, with another big trophy. A fit Thiem will be a strong contender for the title, after falling short in the final last year.

Dominic Thiem serves during the ATP Vienna Open 2020
Tennis – ATP 500 – Erste Bank Open – Wiener Stadthalle, Vienna, Austria – October 30, 2020 Austria’s Dominic Thiem in action during his quarter final match against Russia’s Andrey Rublev REUTERS/Lisi Niesner

While these three men are the more prolific contenders, Rublev is the man in the best form. No one has won more titles on Tour than Rublev this season, and he could make things very interesting.

Nadal has a positive head-to-head record against all his opponents, while things stand all-square between Rublev and Tsitsipas, and Rublev and Thiem.

Prediction for the group: Rafael Nadal and Dominic Thiem to advance.

ATP Finals 2020: Semi-finals and Finals prediction

Nadal will be a lot more pumped this time if he faces Zverev. However, Zverev’s game is a lot more dangerous on these courts and he has dropped just 15 games in two full matches against Nadal in their last two indoor hard-court matches.

Alexander Zverev
Tennis – ATP Masters 1000 – Paris Masters – AccorHotels Arena, Paris, France – Germany’s Alexander Zverev celebrates winning his semi final match against Spain’s Rafael Nadal REUTERS/Gonzalo Fuentes

Meanwhile, Thiem is now a well-rounded player on any surface, his power-packed style of play at the US Open will come in handy again this year, and his run to the final last year was one of his best performances ever.

He beat Djokovic and Federer in the group stage itself last year. The Austrian made the final at both hard-court Slams this year. He also has a combined nine wins over Nadal and Djokovic and knows how to beat them on the big stage.

Prediction: Dominic Thiem to beat Alexander Zverev to lift the ATP Finals 2020 title.

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