Roger Federer has withdrawn from the Australian Open 2021. And now he will lose the points he earned in 2020 as well. But Federer for now has enough points to stay in the top 10 ATP rankings. But he will drop out of the top 5.
Federer is currently ranked 5th with 6630 ranking points. Federer will lose 800 points as he was a semifinalist in 2020. That reduces his ranking points to 5910 points.
Even with the above reduction, Federer is well clear of 10th place Matteo Berrettini. And thus it is impossible that Federer will drop out of the top 10, even if Berrettini wins the Australian Open 2021. But a top 5 omission is almost certain.
So where could Roger Federer end up after Australian Open 2021?
With the loss of points, Federer’s best ranking after the Australian Open can be 6th and the worst ranking can be 8th. Now Federer is ranked 5th, Stefanos Tsitsipas is ranked 6th, Alexander Zverev is seventh and Andrey Rublev is 8th.
Once the Australian Open starts, all the above players will drop points. But Federer won’t be able to gain any points as he is not playing. So deducting last year’s points we have Federer with 5910, Tsitsipas with 5835, Zverev with 4805, and Rublev with 3939 points.
A third-round run and Tsitsipas will overtake Federer. If Zverev reaches the final, then he will jump Federer. And if Rublev wins the Grand Slam, then he will overtake Federer. If all the above stipulations happen, then Federer drops to 8th.
It looks highly likely that Federer would drop to 6th. Zverev reaching the final is a tough task and thus has less chance of happening. And Rublev winning the Grand Slam is a herculean task. So Federer is expected to be in 6th place after the Australian Open 2021.
It is after the Australian Open that Federer defends his 2019 points as well. Federer won the Miami Open, Halle Open and Basel Open. If these tournaments happen and Federer doesn’t perform well, he will lose a lot of points.
And in Grand Slam, Federer reached the finals of Wimbledon in 2019. And he will have to defend that in 2021. So Federer could drop out of the top 10 if he doesn’t win more titles.
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